Bad Moon Rising
How Covid-19, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and Climate Change make a devastating hurricane season much more likely
I see bad times today
So far this year, the world has experienced a wide variety of disasters. 2020 began with record-breaking Australian bushfires, a new disease emerging in China, and a failed impeachment of Donald Trump. Since then, 2020 has seen Covid-19 become a global pandemic, a global economic downturn, the Trump administration fail to contain the American outbreak of Covid-19, extreme Arctic heat, record breaking Siberian wildfires, and unusually early tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
I hear the voice of rage and ruin
Two common themes underpin these events, climate change and a denial of science. These themes are disasters themselves, albeit unfolding more slowly. Going forward, they both pose increasing risk to America’s ability to respond to and mitigate disasters. Regarding climate change, the last 12 months have been the hottest ever recorded at 1.39°C above pre-industrial temperatures. over the last 150 years, global average temperatures have raised to levels not seen for millions of years. These temperatures increase the frequency, intensity, seasonality, and duration of many extreme weather events.
Similarly, decades of building mistrust in science, as documented by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway in their book “Merchants of Doubt”, has reached a horrendous crescendo of Covid-19 misinformation. It should be no surprise that the countries with the worst outbreaks in the world — the United States and Brazil — have Presidents who repeatedly downplayed the risk of Covid-19 and climate change.
I know the end is coming soon
It may be surprising to hear, but thus far in 2020 the world has been lucky. As of yet, epidemic outbreaks of Covid-19 and fossil fueled nightmare weather-powered by science denialism and climate change-have largely not overlapped in time and place. The Australian bushfires preceded the arrival of Covid-19 in Australia. Arctic extreme heat and wildfires, while devastating for local ecosystems and bad for carbon emissions, have largely occurred in sparsely populated Siberia. China’s recent devastating floods mercifully waited until after their coronavirus outbreak was contained. So far in the United States, spikes in New York City, New Orleans, California, Houston, and Miami have not occurred at the same time as any climate driven natural disasters. Unfortunately, the luck likely stops here, as the confluence of Covid-19 outbreaks in the South, climate change, and phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) greatly increase the likelihood a hurricane will make landfall in the Covid-19 infested US South.
Southern States were some of the most reluctant to shut down their economies, as well as some of the earliest to reopen. Governors from these states (Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina) have been some of the most vocal downplaying the grave risk that Covid-19 poses to many Americans. Unsurprisingly, daily new cases in the South tripled and daily hospitalizations quadrupled in the past month. In the map above, you can see that every Southern State had high growth rates of Covid-19 cases over the last few days. As we move into July and August, I fear our luck is ending soon.
Well it’s bound to take your life
Every Southern State saw their 7 day average of cases and hospitalizations dramatically increase this past month, just as hurricane season is about to begin. Deaths have also begun rising in the South. This rise will continue in the coming months as Covid-19 has a long disease progression from onset of symptoms to death. Disease progression time has seemingly been forgotten by the President and a chorus of denialists online falsely claiming that daily deaths are still decreasing.
The dramatic rise in cases and hospitalizations are of particular concern for African Americans. Unfortunately, a growing body of evidence suggests that African American’s have died at disproportionate rates from Covid-19. They make up a large percentage of the population of Southern States, and are more vulnerable due to a history of systemic and environmental racism that exposes them to more toxins and natural disaster risk. Covid-19 isn’t bound to take black folks lives, but they are more vulnerable.
I see trouble on the way
The website, covidcaremap.org has a map of every US county’s hospital bed and ICU occupancy percentage. Alarmingly, many cities and counties across the South are in the highest bracket for ICU capacity, 67–100%. While Covid-19 cases do not account for the majority of ICU occupancy, the current outbreak in the South is putting a greater strain on hospital resources as the number of daily new cases continues to rise. It may seem forever ago, but the original call from epidemiologists and public health officials to “flatten the curve” was intended to help prevent the nightmare scenario unfolding in the South. Southern States’ healthcare systems are increasingly stressed as the Covid-19 daily case curve rockets skyward. Consequently, many populous coastal counties that are vulnerable to hurricanes are currently nearing full ICU occupancy, right as we move into peak hurricane season:
Counties nearing ICU capacity:
Bexar (San Antonio, TX): 75%
Travis (Austin, TX): 67%
Dallas, TX: 71%
Harris (Houston): 68%
Corpus Christi, TX: 86%
Duval (Jacksonville, FL): 73%
Hillsborough (Tampa Bay, FL): 85%
Broward (Ft. Lauderdale, FL) 82%
Miami-Dade, FL: 75%
Palm Beach, FL: 81%
Orange (Orlando, FL):79%
Volusia (Daytona Beach, FL):83%
Leon (Tallahassee, FL): 67%
Pinellas (St. Petersburg, FL): 82%
Gainesville, FL: 82%
Mobile, AL: 82%
Escambia, FL: 96%
Orleans (New Orleans, LA: 90%)
Jefferson, LA: 72%
Chatham (Savannah, GA): 84%
Fulton (Atlanta, GA): 76%
Mecklenburg (Charlotte): 75%
Guilford (Greensboro) NC: 70%
Tuscaloosa, AL: 95%
Birmingham, AL: 75%
Montgomery, AL: 70%
Greenville, SC: 86%
Buncombe (Asheville) TN: 80%
Davidson (Nashville): 86%
Hamilton (Chattanooga): 78%
Madison (Huntsville, AL): 79%
Shelby (Memphis): 86%
Knox (Knoxville, TN): 74%
Forrest (Hattiesburg, MS): 75%
Oklahoma (OKC): 70%
Tulsa: 73%
St. Louis: 70%
Jackson (Kansas City, MO): 75%
Boone (Columbia, MO): 74%
Marion (Indianapolis): 76%
Orange (Chapel Hill, NC): 82%
New Hanover (Wilmington, NC) 100% …!!!
Horry (Myrtle Beach, SC): 83%
The above list is terrifying enough on its own, as many of the largest cities in the South may soon be overwhelmed by a tidal wave of Covid cases. Indeed, hospitals across Texas and Florida are already nearing capacity. Other hospitals in the sun belt are also being overwhelmed by Covid-19 patients. The completionist reader will note the above list includes some cities and counties not on the coasts. With interior cities like Atlanta, Nashville and Birmingham nearing capacity, the available destinations to send overflow coronavirus patients are dwindling.
I hear hurricanes a-blowing
Climate change exacerbates hurricanes in a variety of ways. As global temperature increases, it raises global sea level by melting ice sheets and glaciers. Like any warming fluid, the ocean expands as the Earth heats up, also raising sea level. Both of these factors increase how far hurricanes’ storm surge intrude inland.
Climate change also warms the atmosphere, which then holds more moisture and increases precipitation during hurricanes. Hurricanes also need warm ocean water to form. Some 93% of warming from greenhouse gases thus far has gone into the oceans, making them fertile ground for hurricanes.
A key player in the Atlantic Hurricane season is the El Niño Southern Oscillation. This weather phenomenon is characterized by warm ocean temperatures see-sawing back and forth between the Eastern and Western equatorial Pacific every few years. Hotter temperatures in the Eastern Pacific and colder in the West occur in El Niño years, whereas the inverse pattern prevails in La Niña years. This pattern of shifting Pacific heat is currently in a weak La Niña phase, evidenced by the cooler than average blue section in the left ellipse.
As you can see to in the above map of ocean temperature anomalies, global ocean heat content is generally above average. The key areas for Atlantic hurricane formation are the two right ellipses: the tropical Atlantic West of Africa, and the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea. As of right now, both are entirely above the historical average, an early sign of an active hurricane season.
As observed by Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth, these temperature anomalies are not merely above the historical average. The key areas for Atlantic Hurricane formation — West of Africa, the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico — sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been at or near their highest on record. In some recent studies, scientists have observed extreme heat in the Atlantic ocean contributed to rapid intensification of hurricanes, in which wind speed increases by more than 35 mph in 24 hours or less. Rapid intensification played a role in recent powerful hurricanes like Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Michael. Unfortunately, these record SSTs in the Atlantic will provide a launching pad for hurricanes to strike Gulf States as we enter peak hurricane season.
Looks like we’re in for nasty weather
Historically, La Niña has been associated with greater hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Back in May, the NOAA forecast that we would have a “busy Atlantic hurricane season”, forecasting the ENSO would “remain neutral or to trend toward La Nina”. Similarly, Bob Henson of Yale Environment 360 notes excessive precipitation in the Sahel could combine with hot ocean temps to send a “parade of easterly waves later this summer that could seed tropical cyclones”.
In the map above, Steve Bowen notes that La Niña years see more frequent landfalls of hurricanes and major hurricanes, about twice as many of both. The blue and red dots denote historical hurricane landfalls in La Niña years. These dots are overlaid on a map from Georgia Tech’s Covid-19 risk assessment tool, which shows the risk of 1 person in a group of 100 having Covid-19. On it’s own, the county level data is terrifying, with many Southern counties having a > 99% chance of at least one person being infected with Covid-19 in a group of 100.
I fear rivers overflowing
Even more alarming, is that many of the counties with the highest risk are the same ones that have historically been hit by hurricanes in La Niña years that could get hit again this year. In the event of a major hurricane landfall, people forced to flee their homes may find themselves huddling in shelters with hundreds or thousands of people, at least one of whom is virtually certain to have Covid-19. It’s scary that climate change is compounding the chances of even worse disease spread by making hurricanes more dangerous, right as Southern hospital ICU’s are swelling to the brim.
Complicating matters, low-lying coastal counties and parts of cities and are particularly vulnerable to flooding from storm surge. All too often, these areas are predominantly black communities. Southerners attempting to weather a hurricane at home may find themselves with the onset of, and/or worsening of Covid-19 symptoms. Flooded roads would prevent these steadfast survivors from getting the medical care they need. The consequences will likely be an even higher death toll from both coronavirus and the hurricane than would’ve otherwise occurred, even more so for black communities.
Compounding the risk to Southern States is the amplified ocean temperatures from climate change, which the Department of Defense has referred to as a “threat multiplier”. That’s precisely what is happening under our noses: while our attention is focused on the rapid uptick in Coronavirus cases, climate change is multiplying the threat already posed by Covid-19, associated economic pain and civil unrest. Climate change is driving the extreme heat in the Atlantic and Caribbean, which increases the frequency and ferocity of hurricanes, which increases the chance our healthcare system is overloaded by a confluence of disease and injury. It amplifies the risk of power outages as our hospitals fill up with patients on ventilators. It amplifies the risk of flooding, contaminated water, and supply chain cuts to areas that need clean water for hand-washing, masks for preventing the spread of the disease, and tests to know if they’re infected. The conjunction of overflowing rivers, hospitals, and towns could cause much death and destruction.
Don’t go round tonight
There is, however, still time to mitigate the disastrous outcomes. As New York, Massachusetts, Italy, New Zealand, Spain and others have shown, it’s possible to go from a raging epidemic to a manageable one in a short amount of time. Following the advice of Dr. Fauci and other principled medical professionals will save lives.
In particular, New York went form a high of 11,571 new cases on April 15th to 1,660 new cases on May 11th. This is roughly how much time the South has to try and get the regional outbreak of Covid-19 under control before mid-August, when the frequency of hurricanes typically ramps up and ocean temperatures begin their warmest stretch of the year. Steps taken now to reduce the spread of the disease reduce pandemic suffering and can greatly reduce how devastating hurricanes’ impact will be in the coming months.
One eye is taken for an eye
There seems to be a bad moon on the rise, but Southern States shouldn’t resort to taking one eye for an eye. Working together at a state level and letting compassion drive our interpersonal behavior can reduce future suffering from Covid-19 and hurricanes. This will require drastic epidemiological change from what the South has done so far. To prevent even worse disaster, the South may find that approaching the problem by doing everything the opposite of how they usually do it (like a regional George Costanza), the strain on their healthcare system could be reduced in the lead-up to peak hurricane season. This would entail actually wearing masks, social distancing, and shutting down economies in the hardest hit states. It entails allowing science to dictate policy, and not muzzling scientists and science, or outright lying about what scientists and doctors are telling us.
Hope you have got your things together
If you’re in a hurricane prone region, now is a good time to review and revise your hurricane preparedness plans. If you were planning on staying with relatives up-state, it might be wise to check in to see if they’re still okay hosting you. Whatever emergency bag you pack should have hand sanitizer, masks, and other such preventative items. If you don’t have the luxury of staying with family or friends and wind up in a hurricane shelter, the disease prevention basics still apply. Social distancing and masks will help prevent disease transmission, even if others aren’t following the guidelines perfectly.
While a rough hurricane season is likely, there are steps that can be taken to reduce the impact. Forecast based financing could allow for more preventative action in the lead-up to landfall of this season’s hurricanes, reducing economic suffering. A regional alliance of Southern States, cities, and hospitals could be arranged, such that the parties could agree to take certain share of ICU patients from whichever city/state happens to get hit by a major hurricane or tropical storm this year. As the bad moon rises, it’s as important as ever to get our things together, and let compassion and collaboration drive our response to concurrent disasters.
