Numbers are worth a thousand 2020’s
Why climate change means voting for Trump is unconscionable
Voting for Donald Trump will virtually guarantee that the planet warms more than 1.5°C, and likely guarantees it warms by more than 2°C. For many Americans, an abstract figure like global average temperature is relatively meaningless. What they likely don’t realize, is all of the suffering and death that global warming of that amount or more entails. Donald Trump and pretty much every Republican espouse policies that effectively lock-in death and destruction. The party is more of a death cult than their ‘pro-life’ façade might lead you to believe. Below I have summarized new climate science papers from this year or last that detail some of the biggest risks facing the planet if Donald Trump and (and to a lesser extent other Republicans) are elected tomorrow.
1. Climate change provides 600 million to 1.9 billion people with incentive to migrate by 2050, and could be as high as 3.8 billion by 2100 if we continue to emit greenhouse gases at a high rate. In *THIS* election, a Trump victory enables fossil fuel infrastructure and investments for another 4 years, and increases how many climate migrants we’ll expect to see in the future. Biden’s climate plan yields less climate-forced migration than Trump’s. Given the scale of hundred of millions to billions of people, this axis alone is sufficient reason to not vote for Trump. https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/875/2020/
2. #1 is based on increases in temperature and precipitation changes (dryer & or wetter). It does not include migration from sea level rise. A separate paper estimates that high emissions from now til 2050 (what a Trump presidency entails) yields 90 million more people living at elevation subjected to annual floods (i.e. climate change based incentive to migrate). In a high emissions scenario, and an additional 400 million people living below sea level by 2100. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z
3. Many of you have likely heard of coral bleaching, or seen images of ghostly white coral reefs. A paper from April of this year reviews research on similar tipping points for trees, where the evidence suggests “tree species have rather inflexible damage thresholds, particularly in terms of water stress”. In other words, many trees species likely cannot adapt to the rapid rate of climate change we are currently causing, and may reach a point where massive tree die-off occurs faster than trees can migrate to cooler areas. A Trump presidency vastly increases the odds we cross this threshold relative to a Biden presidency.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6488/261
4. In a similar vein to #3, researchers find that under a high emission scenario going forward, tropical ecosystems could well collapse simultaneously, as they become exposed to heat, precipitation and acidity changes that are outside their historical range. “If global warming is kept below 2 °C, less than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species”. Donald Trump’s *anti-life* fossil fuel plans will make it nearly impossible to limit warming to 2°C, virtually guaranteeing that many tropical oceanic ecosystems experience collapse (and therefore mass death)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2189-9
5. #2 looks at the potential impact of rising seas and revised land-level estimates on potential people impacted globally by sea level rise. #1 looks at the impact of rising heat and altered precipitation on movement of people, and supposes that outdoor agricultural labor can simply move to cities or cooler climes or add air conditioning to buildings. However, workers (aka people) also need food that agricultural work provides. In addition to migration to cities from historical agricultural areas possibly reducing yields, climate change is also (and will continue to) reducing mountain snowpack, leading to less trickle down water for agriculture. This paper examines how reductions in snowmelt will impact agriculture, and finds “ ~16% increases from 2000 to 2030)”. A trump presidency will lead to more warming -> more snowmelt -> lowered agricultural output -> worse finances for rural farmers. Don’t vote for Trump.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0746-8
6. Another paper finds that a high emissions, burn all the coal scenario that the Trump administration espouses finds that 1–3 billion people could be pushed out of the zone of habitability by increasing temperatures. This is similar thematically to #1, and another strong reason not to vote for Trump.
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/21/11350
7. In case you weren’t convinced that Trump and other Republicans are an “anti-life” death cult yet, here’s a paper that should shred any notion of their purported “pro-life” credentials. In addition to Trump/Republicans fossil fuel energy plans potentially killing off trees and whole ecosystems, continuing to release CO2 by burning fossil fuels has the potential to expose hundreds of millions of people to high humidity heat waves hotter than humans can survive with natural defense mechanisms like sweating.
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/8/e1603322
8. Trump and Republican’s energy policies and opposition to efforts to limit emissions will not only lock-in 2°C warming, but move us closer to a tipping point for releasing permafrost methane and CO2. All of the above papers assume warming from human CO2 emissions alone, and not from the possibility of permafrost greenhouse gas release. Iffff permafrost carbon is released because we cross some temperature threshold later this century, the amount of warming, migrations, and deaths, will dramatically increase.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15725-8
9. The more we warm the planet, the more likely it is we experience tropical tree die-back. This paper implies that higher future warming scenarios will lead to trees releasing more carbon to the atmosphere, furthering warming, and all of the migrations/food shortages/deaths that go with it. Don’t vote for Trump/Republicans
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6493/869
10. In relation to the loss of snowmelt from #5, this paper projects the number of people subjected to water stress (lack of access to fresh water) with 2°C warming “The number of people exposed to water stress could double by 2050 if efforts are not made to keep global warming below 2C above pre-industrial levels and future population growth is high”. As a reminder, a second Trump term, on account of his lack of effort to address climate change, will likely lock-in 2°C warming. Relatedly, republican obstructionism in the house/senate will also inhibit our ability to stop water stress from increasing. Don’t vote for Trump
https://www.carbonbrief.org/world-population-facing-water-stress-could-double-by-2050-as-climate-warms?utm_content=buffer69c22&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001321
11. It’s a recurring theme: Trump and Republicans are not actually pro-life, they’re really more of a death cult. Here, this paper demonstrates that sea level rise could wipe out a large portion of the world’s coastal mangrove forests (and, necessarily the ecosystems that they are a part of). Don’t vote for Trump/Republicans because their energy plans endanger mangrove forest life.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6495/1118.
12. While we know climate change is happening, it’s caused by us, and it’s dangerous, we don’t know for sure how rapidly it will happen or how bad it will get. This study finds climate computer models have underestimated the amount of permafrost CO2 leakage by 14%, implying there’s more warming in the pipeline under high emission scenarios that Trump puts us on track for. Don’t vote for Trump.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL087085
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/climate-models-underestimate-co2-emissions-from-permafrost-by-14-percent-study-finds
13. This paper looks at how increasing global surface temperature changes (*strictly T*) crop yields for rice, wheat, soy, and maize, and finds that crop yields will decrease from 2.9%-10% for these crops. The authors note “direct warming impacts alone will reduce major crop yields by 3–13% under 2 K global warming without considering CO2 fertilization effects and adaptations.”. In other words, another 4 years of Trump, which virtually locks-in at least 2°C warming, will lead to reductions in global crop yields ~3–13%. That is the best possible outcome of a Trump presidency, as we could well be in store for even more than 2°C warming. Furthermore, crop yields will necessarily be decreased further by sea level rise and reduction of snowmelt. Voting for Trump and Republicans is voting Pro-Death.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-0569-7
14. A vote for Trump is a vote for more climate change. Thus far, climate change has already increased the number of heat wave days, as this study shows. The warmer the planet gets, the worse our heat waves will get. This has associated impacts on deaths in heat waves and food production (higher temperature heat waves are distinct from global annual average temperature increases in terms of agricultural yields. As any farmer will tell you, a long, blistering heat wave/drought can kill off crops). Don’t vote for Trump, prevent heat wave deaths and support farmers and your own access to food.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16970-7
15. You probably heard about the record-breaking fires in California this year. You may not know that climate change is *already* increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in California. The authors note, “Our climate model analyses suggest that continued climate change will further amplify the number of days with extreme fire weather by the end of this century, though a pathway consistent with the UN Paris commitments would substantially curb that increase.”. And, yet again, we find another example of how Trump’s presidency, which makes meeting the UN Paris climate commitment virtually impossible, will contribute to substantial increase in some negative aspect of climate change. Here, it’s the deadly (both via fire and smoke) wildfires laying waste to California. Voting for Trump is voting to drastically increase the danger/risk from California’s wildfires. Don’t vote for Trump and Republicans
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7#erlab83a7s3
16. This paper finds that a high emission carbon emissions scenario will lead to temperature changes more rapid than any time in the last 66 million years. If you’re wondering how the researchers know anything about what the climate looked like over the last 66 million years, it’s because they detected the amount of different isotopes of Carbon and Boron in the shells of tiny microorganisms on the ocean floor, in conjunction with computer models to show the Earth’s distance from the sun at the same time due to eccentricities in it’s orbit. Voting for Trump is voting for a high emission scenario that would put us on a path to change the Earth’s global average temperature more rapidly than any time in the last 66 million years. Don’t vote for Trump.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6509/1383/tab-pdf
17. In a further blow to potential habitability and agriculture, this paper finds that the co-incidence of extreme heat and dryness has increased dramatically over the past hundred years over the contiguous United States. Given that our ~1.2°C warming so far has already yielded this result, it stands to reason that extreme heat and extreme dry coincidence will continue to go up as the planet warms. Biden’s climate plan will necessarily reduce the harm from extreme heat and drought relative to Trump’s ‘burn all the fuels’ plan.
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/39/eaaz4571
18. A new study demonstrates increasing crevasses in parts of the Antarctic ice sheet, which could be the early stages of ice-sheet collapse. Estimates of sea level rise by 2050 and 2100 may be underestimated, if the ice sheets collapse sooner than climate computer models forecast. This could lead to way more climate refugees, and contribute to a massive devaluation of coastal oceanic property in Florida, North Carolina, and around the world.
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/40/24735
19. Another reason the “pro-life” party is an utter farce: climate change has already increased marine heat waves tenfold. These heatwaves already kill off millions of fish, and this paper estimates that 3°C of warming could make heat waves an annual event, killing off billions of fish and depleting fish stocks for food consumption. There’s nothing “pro-life” about voting for a party whose policies lead to massive death
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6511/1621?fbclid=IwAR2Xd2rsiQS7XnYXK8L5Du-iwbUmGcPq0-fitdZlZhhIwHPxuM8BHjBTOBw
20. A meta-analysis of other scientists research finds overwhelmingly that climate change increases fire risk. Because Biden has a #climateplan, he is necessarily a better choice than Trump for President of the United States.
https://sciencebrief.org/uploads/reviews/ScienceBrief_Review_WILDFIRES_Sep2020.pdf
The above papers are just a few of the hundreds of thousands of papers detailing why worsening climate change is a serious threat to human society and other life on Earth. Many of them are sufficient in their own right to completely invalidate a vote for a Trump presidency, as well as most if not all climate change denying Republicans. Our time to act is short, and four more years of Trump will likely lock-in temperature increases that have devastating consequences and can’t be undone. On climate alone, the choice of who to vote for could not be clearer. If caring about living things on this planet is a key factor in your voting tendencies, know that a vote for Trump is unconscionable, and please consider voting for Biden. A vote for Biden will not ‘solve climate change’, and many further steps will be required to stop the planet’s warming. But, at this point, it is a necessary first step.
