We Delved Too Greedily and Too Deep
How Shadow and Flame Wreathed the West
Let us go through the mines of Moria…
In the film version of The Fellowship of the Ring, the wizard Gandalf the Grey advises his friends, “I would not take the road through Moria unless I had no other choice”. In the film and book, he is all too aware of the consequences of centuries of mining for an extremely valuable natural resource, the fictional metal mithril. In Lord of the Rings’ history, dwarves of Middle Earth, in their lust for wealth and power, unwittingly unleashed a balrog — a mythical fiery demon from ancient times that wreaks havoc and destruction that destroyed entire cities. It’s understandable the wise old Gandalf would seek to avoid encountering this demon.
Over the past few years and decades, planet Earth has seen increasingly devastating wildfires that wreak havoc and destroy entire cities. Australia had a terrible wildfire season that broke records for acres burned in New South Wales and forced entire towns to flee to the coast in the shadow of orange skies. Some biologists estimate the fires may have killed billions of animals and destroyed enough habitat to drastically increase the probability of endangered species going extinct. In the year leading up to the fires, Australia had its highest temperatures and lowest precipitation on record.
This summer, parts of Siberia recorded the first ever temperature over 100°F in the Arctic Circle. Much of Siberia has been unbelievably hot, near 5°C above pre-industrial temperatures so far in 2020. Unsurprisingly, this year and last year have seen Siberia’s worst wildfires in the satellite record. The satellite imaging of Siberia’s massive fires are as unnerving as the views of California and Australia’s fires. All are evocative of the fiery terror spread by the balrog of Moria.
In California, 2020 has already broken the historical record for most acres burned in a year, despite September into early November historically being the worst stretch for fires. On September 8th, California wildfires had burned 2.178 million acres. Today, less than a week later, the number is over 3.1 million acres. This exceeds 2018’s record that fell just shy of 2 million acres. In 2018 California’s deadliest fire was tragically sparked by a Pacific Gas and Electric power line amid a windstorm. The sparking powerline spawned the infamous Camp Fire that lay waste to the town of Paradise, burning 17,000 structures to the ground, killing over 80 people, and leaving thousands homeless.
As I was writing this article, the refugee camp dubbed “Moria” on the island of Lesbos in Greece burned to the ground, leaving tens of thousands without shelter. While it’s unclear what started the fire (some suspect it was the refugees themselves, other nearby wildfires, others extreme right-wing Greeks), it should be noted that many refugees in this real life Moria beset by flame are themselves fleeing an increasingly dry and drought prone Middle East. Key analyses have linked the Syrian Civil war to an epic drought that formed from 2006–2011. Assuredly, many of these refugees on Lesbos would not have passed through Moria unless they had no other choice. Similarly, citizens of the Western United States would not have willingly elected to pass through the shadow and flame of this year’s wildfires, reminiscent of the fear and power of the fiery demon Gandalf confronts in the mines of Moria, were it possible to choose an alternate path. So how did we get to this point of ever escalating danger from wildfires?
The wealth of the West was not in gold or jewels, but in fossil fuels
Much as Gandalf knew that the dwarves of Moria awoke a demon of the ancient world with their mining, so too, have scientists known that our extraction and burning of fossil fuels would warm the planet. Fossil fuels are composed of ancient biomass buried under the Earth where they have lain dormant in the darkness. They store energy from bacteria, plants, and animals from hundreds of millions of years ago. Our greed for the ‘cheap’ energy stored in fossil fuels has led us to pursue deeper and less accessible fossil fuel reserves (of course, ‘our’ is relative… many that deserve cheap energy die, and many that profit immensely live royally: the distribution of responsibility and profit from this greed is decidedly lopsided). When burned, their chemical bonds break releasing carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane, which cause the greenhouse effect. The resulting build-up of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere is the primary driver of climate change that is behind the wildfires across the West.
We know what they Awoke in the Darkness
The basic principles of the greenhouse effect were known before the Civil War (originally identified by pioneering woman scientist Eunice Foote,) wherein Greenhouse gases trap infrared radiation emitted from the Earth and re-emit it back to the Earth’s surface, warming surface temperatures. Scientists have either testified to congress or released reports detailing the dangers of burning fossil fuels on multiple occasions since the 1950’s, most famously when James Hansen testified to US congress in 1988. Much like Gandalf was aware of the dangers of the balrog, scientists have known about the perils of climate change for generations, but their warnings have largely gone unheeded.
There are older and fouler things in the deep places of the world
Since the dawn of the industrial era, annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have increased exponentially as our use of fossil fuels has increased dramatically. Over the past few years, global emissions of CO2 from burning fossil fuels have been near 40 gigatonnes annually. Even this year’s coronavirus induced economic crisis may only make a small dent in emissions. Since CO2 stays in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years, all of the fossil fuels we burn in the coming years will impact the global climate for millenia. Many fossil fuel companies continue to push to drill for harder to access energy reserves, have received billions in coronavirus bailout funding in the United States (compared to miniscule amounts for renewables, a sector that lost 600,000 jobs compared to the 8,000 saved by PPP loans from the CARES act), and lobby congress and the Trump administration for tax breaks and elimination of environmental regulations. The cumulative effects of these actions increase the odds we continue to release more CO2 in the near future.
Like clockwork, global concentrations of CO2 have increased every year since the 1950s. The famous Keeling Curve portrays the steady uptick of CO2 in the atmosphere. The high point in May every year is higher than the previous year by 1–3 parts per million (ppm). Thus far, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have increased from a pre-industrial level of 280 ppm to 418 ppm in May, 2020. The fossil fuels in the deep places of the world are fouling up our atmosphere with CO2 pollution, that is unequivocally warming the atmosphere.
We delved too greedily and too deep (and continue to do so)
Thus far, global average temperatures have increased by ~1.1°C since pre-industrial times as a consequence of the increased CO2 in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels. In the last twelve months preceding September, global average temperatures were 1.27°C above pre-industrial averages. 2019 saw global land temperatures reach 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels, far above the aspirational target and ‘safe’ level of warming of 1.5°C established at the Paris Climate Accords. At 1.28°C this year, we are witnessing some of the worst fires in the West’s history. These fires roar down mountainside like fiery demons, destroying most everything in their paths, and covering the world in a sickening darkness amidst a respiratory pandemic. While it might seem trivial, this steady and prolonged increase in global average temperature increases wildfire risk in a variety of ways.
The world has grown full of peril
As I’ve documented elsewhere, climate change worsens wildfire risk in a variety of ways. First and foremost, the higher average temperatures documented above make summers warmer, and increase the duration of fire seasons around the world. In the American West, the duration of fire season “is two and a half months longer than 40 years ago”. Hotter temperatures also pull more moisture out of the ground and out of plants, leaving trees and grasslands drier and more vulnerable to fire-starts from lightning, car rims, fireworks, gender reveal parties, and sparking powerlines. Hotter air can hold more moisture than cooler air. Consequently, today’s atmosphere can pull more moisture out of the Earth than before humans significantly changed the climate. Relatedly, reduced snowfall in warmer winters means less trickle-down water to keep plants hydrated from the Rockies, Cascades, and Sierra Nevada. Shorter winters not only reduce opportunities for snowpack accumulation, but reduces snowpack reflection of sunlight, increasing local temperatures.
With shorter winters and longer summers, climate change can contribute to a vapor pressure deficit, the “gap between how much moisture *could* be in the air vs. how much is *actually there*.” This water vapor deficit has reached dramatic proportions, the highest levels in the last 40 years in the week preceding California’s ‘lightning siege’ that flooded the state in wildfire. In the leadup to this week’s mind-boggling fire blitzkrieg across the West, the vapor pressure deficit was near 100% in nearly all of the American Southwest, and also high across Washington and Oregon that saw large and dangerous wildfires.
In wetter seasons, like the West’s winters, the atmosphere holding more moisture can lead to more rainfall. Counterintuitively, this increased rainfall can up wildfire risk. winter and Spring downpours can lead to rapid growth of underbrush, grasses, and trees growing up unencumbered by the shade of trees killed in forest fires past. This higher winter precipitation followed by longer, hotter, and dryer summers creates what Dr. Daniel Swain of UCLA terms “precipitation whiplash events”. Increasingly hot summers dry out plants that grew in the Spring faster, leaving them more vulnerable to catching fire.
As temperature increases and winter frosts decrease, the dreaded bark beetle can expand its habitable range Northward and further up mountain slopes. Bark beetles bore through trees bark and birth their young in the trees sensitive growing layer, the cambium. The young then eat away at the tree’s cambium, affecting its ability to distribute water throughout its trunk and branches. When it’s hotter, trees have to conserve more energy and water, and are less able to fight off bark beetle infestations. Bark beetles have been associated with billions of tree deaths across the Western US, and several recent outbreaks are some of the largest in recorded history. Billions of dead trees across the West exacerbate the fire risk before fires start, and leave trees more defenseless against wildfire once they have started. In this way, climate change indirectly increases wildfire risk by expanding bark beetle habitat and increasing wildfire tinder loads.
The above image illustrates the shifting distribution of Northern hemisphere land temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere summer, from a paper by James Hansen earlier this year. The image on the right illustrates how high heat events of three standard deviations or higher (the dark red in the images), used to happen 0.1% of the time from 1951–1980. Now, extreme heat events three or more standard deviations above the 1951–1980 mean make up a whopping 22.1% of recorded temperatures. These oppressive extreme heat events were historically rare but have become commonplace, and their fiery temperatures bedevil plants and animals alike on hot summer days.
While not quite fiery shadow-demon roaring in your face, there has been a push of late to name heat waves after demons of notoriety by some climate scientists and meteorologists. Incidentally, both of the lightning siege of late August and fire blitzkrieg of early September were preceded by record breaking heat waves Beelzebub and Chort. The former led to California’s hottest August ever, at 2.8°C above pre-industrial temperatures, and the hottest reliably measured temperature in world history at Death Valley. In turn, Heat Wave Chort led to near record breaking heat from Southern Washington down through Northern California, incidentally right where most of the fires started on the Western slopes of the Cascades earlier this week.
Record breaking heat waves don’t occur in a vacuum, nor are acres burned from wildfires the product of one or two monstrous heat waves. The trees and other plants that burn in wildfires are made more vulnerable by the previous months, years, and even decades of high heat and reduced moisture. A study published in April of this year found that the ‘megadrought’ afflicting the Southwest United States from 2000–2018 was the second driest in the last 1200 years, and that climate change accounted for 47% of the severity. In other words, the fires of this year were made more likely to occur and burn more acres on account of 2 decades of drought like conditions.
There are other ways climate change may be amplifying wildfire risk. Some scientists have found a link between climate change and increased lightning strikes, 12% more per 1°C global warming. Others have found that melting sea ice may lead to ‘blocking’ events that can cause high pressure systems to get stuck over one area, leading to more intense heat waves and droughts. And rapid intensification of wildfires can help produce pyrocumulonimbus clouds, which create their own lightning and can spark more wildfires. Lastly, wildfire emissions from burning trees themselves release more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, further increasing the greenhouse effect
All of these factors have contributed to the increase in annual acres burned by wildfires across the American West. Since 1980, Western states have seen an upward trend of acres burned per year by wildfires. The same pattern has unsurprisingly held for California, whose annual acres burned has increased dramatically, as seen in the image below. Since the image was posted two days ago, another 600,000 acres have burned in California.
Shadow and Flame
In “The Two Towers”, we learn Gandalf the Grey sacrificed himself to eliminate the threat posed by the balrog of Moria, so as to prevent it from unleashing fiery destruction on the world. In the real world images above, demonic heat waves birth raging wildfires that spew towering pillars of smoke high into the atmosphere. Despite climate scientists best efforts, the biannual parade of deadly wildfires continues unabated. The past few weeks wildfires across the American West were truly unprecedented — except perhaps because ‘unprecedented’ is applied to wildfires nearly every year — as wildfires continue to break records in step with rising global temperatures.
The raw numbers from the wave of fires punishing the West are as astonishing as they are terrifying. Since I began writing, California’s August complex fire — it’s largest ever — merged with another top 20 fire in terms of acres burned, the Elkhorn complex, to create a massive supercomplex of fires that has nearly doubled the old record for acres burned in a single fire at over 700,000 acres. About a week ago, the Creek Fire exploded in size and burned nearly 100,000 acres in a day, which was possibly the most in a day at the time. A few days later, California’s Bear Fire aka North Complex fire likely shattered that record and burned over 200,000 acres in a day. The Bear Fire also prompted evacuations East of Paradise, including from survivors of the destructive Camp Fire a mere two years ago.
Smoke from the Bear Fire and other fires in Oregon darkened skies around San Francisco, and continues to do so. Numerous pictures and videos surfaced of dark orange and red skies engulfing the city. Much of Western California’s air quality has been hazardous for the past few weeks. For those not familiar with inhaling wildfire smoke, it leaves your throat itchy and makes you feel like coughing: not ideal during a respiratory pandemic. While N-95’s are the masks to use to filter out the carcinogenic aerosols the fires generate, citizens of CA have been advised not to acquire them to save the limited supply for healthcare workers on the frontline of the pandemic. Unfortunately, this will lead to worse long-term health outcomes for CA residents suffering from the fires.
Unfortunately, California is not alone in suffering from the shadow and flame of these hellish wildfires. According to Governor Jay Inslee, more than 300,000 acres burned in one day earlier this week, a higher total than twelve entire fire seasons. The Cold Springs fire leaped the Columbia River and spawned the Pearl Hill fire, which burned a 60 mile stretch of Washington in a day, which have collectively burned around 350,000 acres.
By Nightfall these hills will be swarming with flames
Oregon may have witnessed the most spectacular and horrific wave of wildfires. Over the course of two days, seven of Oregon’s twelves largest cities were threatened by massive wildfires that hadn’t existed two days prior. The West slopes of the Oregon Cascades saw six major wildfires breakout near simultaneously that all rapidly exploded in size. It was difficult to keep track of the names of fires bursting forth in the night. The Glendower/Almeda Fire & Obenchain for Medford; the Archie Creek Fire for Roseburg; the Holiday Farm fire for Eugene and Springfield; the Beachie Creek Fire for Salem and Albany; the Riverside Fire for Portland’s periphery. This writer found himself scrambling to identify fire names and help plan evacuation routes for friends across the state.
Five of these fires grew to over 100,000 acres in size. A whopping ten percent of Oregon’s population — 500,000 people — had to evacuate simultaneously in the middle of the Coronavirus pandemic. As the fires threatened many of the states largest cities in the Willamette valley, it was unclear which cities would be the safest locations to rendezvous. For folks in Southern Oregon, wildfires shut down Interstate 5, the main highway in Oregon, in both directions. Smoke from the fires in the US West recently reached Europe. The Glendower Fire started in Ashland and razed the towns of Talent and Phoenix to the ground before encroaching Southeastern Medford where it mercifully halted. Newsweek provided shocking before and after pictures of the destroyed towns.
We cannot get out… they are coming
Some American citizens and towns tragically met their fate this past week as fires evocative of balrogs descended in the night. In Washington, the 80% of the town Malden was destroyed by the Babb Road Fire, and a couple lost their son and unborn child to the Cold Springs Fire. As depicted above, the Southern Oregon towns of Talent and Phoenix were largely destroyed by the Glendower fire. Five towns in total were destroyed in the havoc wrought by climate change worsened wildfires across the state. Several California towns met similar fates in the Bear Fire and Creek Fire. Across the West, 28 people have died with dozens more missing. Unfortunately, the carnage from this year’s wildfire season is not over, and portends more death and destruction to come as the planet continues to warm.
From the lowest valley to the highest peak, they fought them
Tragedy is often fertile ground for heroism and selflessness. National guard troops navigated dangerous conditions with low visibility to rescue people trapped at Mammoth Pool by the Creek Fire. After multiple trips, they managed to save hundreds of lives. Thousands of volunteers rescued animals from Oregon wildfires. One Oregon family woke up five minutes before their house went up in flames. They could hear cars “blowing up” behind them before they were rescued by another family driving on a road behind their house. But not for the cooperation and mutual aid of citizens across the American West, the loss of life may have been much greater.
Much of the valiant heroics of wildfire firefighters in California’s comes from prisoners. For the past few decades, prisoners have gotten paid dollars a day to fight the monstrosities. Historically they were prevented from acquiring work as professional firefighters upon release. In addition to smoke, change is also in the air, as California recently passed a bill to allow these unsung heroes to become firefighters upon release.
All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us
Our real world balrogs — the wildfires incinerating the West — are indeed frightening, and at time immobilizing. It can be hard to know how to move forward facing such times. In the treacherous mines of Moria, Frodo laments being trapped in the mines, and the evils that have befallen them on their quest. Gandalf the Grey offers the sage advice, “All we have to do is decide what to do with the time that is given us”. This sage advice was my mantra last year completing my Master’s of Climate Change Science and Policy, and the wise words hold true this day and everyday going forward. While people around the world may well lament living in a time of such peril and danger, it’s also true that we have the power to change the world. What’s more, what is scientifically necessary to stop climate change from getting worse is known and possible.
As a global community, we need to reduce our CO2 emissions to net-zero as soon as possible. The International Panel on Climate Change recently released Special Report 1.5 on what is necessary to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Keeping in mind that we are already at about ~1.1°C above pre-industrial temperatures, the report estimates that it will be necessary to reduce global CO2 emission by 45% by 2030, in order to give us a shot at limiting warming to 1.5°C. This monumental task for humanity, though immensely challenging, is indeed possible, and we have the technology to make it happen. Various plans for a Green New Deal, Zero Carbon Bill, Green Deal, or 100% renewable energy have been proposed, passed legislation, and/or are being implemented. New Zealand’s labor party just committed to helping the country 100% renewable energy by 2030.
If we stop emitting carbon dioxide, the planet’s temperature will largely stabilize. While this won’t undo the warming we’ve witnessed so far, stopping global temperatures from increasing will give us more time to adapt to changes still on their way like rising seas from ice sheets that will continue to melt. Wildfires will still burn, but stabilizing temperatures will allow plants and animals more time to adapt to changed ecosystems. All we have to do is decide how to use the time that is given to us.
